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Shane Goldmacher notes Democrats are favored in Maine and North Carolina but must fight in deeper red states like Texas to win a Senate majority. In Texas, Democrat James Tallarico is running a competitive, centrist campaign against the scandal-plagued incumbent Ken Paxton.
A political forecasting model has shifted the Texas state race between Ken Paxton and James Tallarico to favor the Democrat. Krystal reports James Tallarico currently maintains a 55 percent probability of winning the historically conservative seat.
James Tallarico is widening his lead over Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate race after moderating his stance on transgender issues. Tallarico publicly retracted his claim that six genders exist, stating sports must remain safe for biological sexes.
Democrats have captured a six-point lead over Republicans in national party identification. In Texas, Democratic challenger James Tallarico leads incumbent Attorney General Ken Paxton 48 percent to 43 percent, reflecting broader Republican vulnerabilities.
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