Lyn Alden argues the era of American hyperpower is over, with the world shifting back to a multipolar state of multiple competing powers.
Alden notes that while the U.S. dollar remains the reserve currency, key imperial metrics like education and manufacturing have already peaked and rolled over.
Empires rarely downsize voluntarily; they fight to maintain projection until they can't, with the Middle East being the current stage for U.S. structural decline.
Gold sold off during the Iran crisis, defying its typical safe-haven role, which Alden attributes to forced liquidity selling by sovereign players and funds.
Gold had an unusually strong rise in the prior year, reaching a sentiment peak, making it a prime source of liquidity for institutions facing margin calls.
Bitcoin held up better than expected during the crisis, which Alden suggests is because fast money had already exited after a rough prior few months.
A prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz could push oil prices past $200, crippling global manufacturing and redistributing power to energy-independent poles.
Oil at over $200 would accelerate the shift away from U.S. influence more than just spiking inflation, according to Alden.
A potential Fed chair change to Kevin Warsh shifts focus to how the U.S. manages its debt in a persistent high-inflation environment.
The economic margin for error is shrinking as private credit markets show early signs of breakdown.